Sander, Nikola; Abel Guy J.; Riosmena, Fernando (2014)
In: Lutz, Wolfgang; Butz, William P.; Samir, KC (Hrsg.): World Population and Human Capital in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press: 333–397
DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0007
The article explores alternative future trajectories of international migration by applying a multi-regional flow model to a new set of estimates of global bilateral migration flows developed by the second author. It summarizes the results of the expert questionnaire about substantive arguments concerning future migration and synthesizes this with the recent literature. The innovations in population projections presented here are threefold: first, the projections are based on new flow estimates that are comparable at the world level rather than commonly used net migration measures; second, a set of alternative expert-based what-if scenarios is developed and a continuation of current trends until the year 2060 as the medium variant is assumed, rather than assuming a convergence to zero net migration; third projections are carried out using directional migration probabilities in a multi-regional cohort–component framework, where populations of all countries are projected simultaneously.