Höhn, Charlotte; Mai, Ralf; Micheel, Frank (2008)
In: Hamm, Ingrid; Seitz, Helmut; Werding, Martin (Hrsg.): Demographic Change in Germany. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer: 9–33
In most developed countries two long-term demographic trends are observed: below replacement fertility combined with rising life expectancy. The consequence is a major demographic change with a shift of the age composition: demographic aging. Demography is one of the few sciences that are mainly focused on the future. On grounds of the long-term scale and the inertia of demographic processes, demographers are able to project future trends with a rather satisfying likelihood. The rapidly growing importance of demographic analyses and projections comes from the notion that aging societies will face increasing problems within the next decades.