Federal Institute for Population Research

Peer-Reviewed Articles in Scientific JournalsSpatial variation in excess mortality across Europe: a cross-sectional study of 561 regions in 21 countries

Bonnet, Florian; Grigoriev, Pavel; Sauerberg, Markus; Alliger, Ina; Mühlichen, Michael; Camarda, Carlo-Giovanni (2024)

Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health 14(2): 470–479

DOI: 10.1007/s44197-024-00200-0

Objective: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.

Methods: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.

Results: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.

Conclusions: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

Use of cookies

Cookies help us to provide our services. By using our website you agree that we can use cookies. Read more about our Privacy Policy and visit the following link: Privacy Policy

OK