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New Article in “Demographic Research” • 30.04.2024Alternative Approach for Measuring Human Longevity
A new paper by Markus Sauerberg (BiB) and Marc Luy (VID) in Demographic Research explores the potential of the “standardised mean age at death” (MADstd) as an alternative approach for measuring human longevity.
The period mean age at death (MAD) is affected by a population’s age structure, and therefore by its mortality, fertility, and migration history. Period life expectancy (e_0) is also a mean age at death, for a standardised population with a stationary age structure. It depends only on current mortality rates. Here, the authors explore a middle ground: an age-standardised measure of period age at death, called MADstd, that includes both past and present mortality influences, while omitting the effects of past fertility and migration.
Aiming to highlight the common structure of the three measures, the authors expressed them as weighted averages with different weighting functions. By doing so, the authors examined them from the perspective of compositional change; i.e., how changes in the underlying age structure affect MAD, MADstd, and e_0.
The authors compared MADstd with e_0 and MAD formally and empirically, using data on six countries from 1990 to 2020. A particular focus is given to the effect of the increased mortality in 2020 on the three longevity measures.
As a result, the e_0 indicator gives a higher average age at death than MAD and MADstd because the relative number of older individuals is comparatively high in the hypothetical period life table population. While e_0 declines between 2019 and 2020, both MAD and MADstd show increases in 2020. This can be attributed to differences in the dynamics of the age structures underlying the three indicators. Only the life table population shifts to younger ages, whereas for the observed population and standardised population in 2020 the relative numbers of older individuals increased.
The authors conclude that trends in MAD and MADstd are less sensitive to recent developments in mortality, making e_0 the most valuable for examining changes in period mortality rates over time. Considering the interaction between changes in age-specific mortality rates and changes in the underlying age structure deepens the understanding of diverging time trends in MAD, MADstd, and e_0.
Sauerberg, Markus; Luy, Marc (2024): Standardized mean age at death (MADstd): Exploring its potential as a measure of human longevity. Demographic Research 50(30): 871-898.