New Article in “Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health” • 20.02.2024Large Regional Disparities in Excess Mortality in Europe

For this study, Floran Bonnet and Giancarlo Camarda from INED, along with Pavel Grigoriev, Markus Sauerberg, Ina Alliger and Michael Mühlichen from our REDIM team, analysed regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level, they estimated excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.

They found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only 3 regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and 3 regions showed losses greater than 3 years. Geographical clusters of high mortality were evident for Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden. Overall, regional differences in the loss of life expectancy were impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months.

The authors point out that these findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

Bonnet, Florian; Grigoriev, Pavel; Sauerberg, Markus; Alliger, Ina; Mühlichen, Michael; Camarda, Carlo-Giovanni (2024): Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries. Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health (online first).