BiB’s 50th Anniversary • 06.07.2023Mortality Trends in Times of Great Uncertainty

Group photo of the participants of the conference strand on “Mortality Trends and Future Prospects for Longevity in Times of Great Uncertainty”

After lots of inspiring talks and fruitful discussions, we wish to thank all particpants for contributing to make this event so pleasant. The topics of the talks focused on international and subnational mortality trends, cause-specific mortality differences, excess mortality, and socioeconomic differences in mortality. Below, you will find an overview of all presentations given in our conference strand.

Monday, July 3, 2023

Session 1 “Measuring excess mortality in times of pandemics” | 13:15 – 14:45 | Chair: Sebastian Klüsener (BiB)

• Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (MPIDR), Sergey Timonin (ANU), Dmitry Jdanov (MPIDR), Nazrul Islam (University of Southampton) and David A. Leon (LSHTM):
  East-West mortality divide during the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe: methodological considerations, empirical results and possible explanations

• Jonas Schöley and Ricarda Duerst (both MPIDR):
  Empirical prediction intervals applied to short-term mortality forecasts and excess deaths

• Florian Bonnet (INED), Pavel Grigoriev, Markus Sauerberg, Ina Alliger and Michael Mühlichen (all BiB), and Carlo-Giovanni Camarda (INED):
  Spatial variation in excess mortality in Europe: a cross-sectional study of 561 regions in 21 countries

Session 2 “Mortality trends in the US and Europe” | 15:00 – 16:30 | Chair: Jacques Vallin (INED)

• Magali Barbieri (UC Berkeley, INED) and Celeste Winant (UC Berkeley):
  The deterioration of life expectancy trends in the United States: understanding the contribution of geographic disparities

• Sophie Stroisch (Universities of Groningen and Oldenburg), Michael Mühlichen and Pavel Grigoriev (both BiB), Rok Hrzic (Maastricht University), Tobias Vogt (University of Groningen):
  Trends of life expectancy in European cross-border regions between 1992-2020

• Rok Hrzic (Maastricht University) and Pavel Grigoriev (BiB):
  Economic Europeanization and regional mortality disparities in Central and Eastern Europe

Get together | from 19:00 at Lumen

Tuesday, July 4, 2023

Keynote “What are we learning about socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Europe?” | 9:30 – 10:30 | by Alyson van Raalte (MPIDR)

Session 3 “Subnational mortality trends and differentials” | 11:00 – 12:45 | Chair: Markus Sauerberg (BiB)

• Domantas Jasilionis, László Németh and Dmitri Jdanov (all MPIDR):
  Measuring and interpreting area-level mortality determinants: some methodological considerations

• France Meslé and Jacques Vallin (both INED):
  When geography contradicts history: the case of gender differences in life expectancy

• Óskar Daði Jóhannsson (CPop, CED) and Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher (CPop):
  Drivers of population change in Danish municipalities

• Nataliia Levchuk (NAS of Ukraine, MPIDR), Laura Ann Cilek (BiB), Jonas Schöley and Domantas Jasilionis (both MPIDR):
  Long-term health effects of the Chernobyl accident in Ukraine

Session 4 “Measuring and interpreting health and mortality outcomes” | 13:45 – 15:15 | Chair: Carlo Giovanni Camarda (INED)

• Antonino Polizzi (University of Oxford), Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (MPIDR):
  Estimating kin loss due to violent deaths in Mexico: a subnational microsimulation approach

• Reiko Hayashi (IPSS):
  Cause of death statistics in Japan and future orientation in the ICD-11 era

• Ulrich Mueller, Andrea Werdecker and Ronny Westerman (all BiB):
  Introduction to the German National Cohort (NAKO)

• Anna Oksuzyan (University of Bielefeld), Maciej J. Dańko, Jennifer Caputo, Mine Kühn and Yana Vierboom (all MPIDR):
  Challenging prevailing stereotypes about gender differences in health reporting: evidence using biomarker data from the Health and Retirement Study

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Session 5 “Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality” | 9:15 – 10:45 | Chair: Felix zur Nieden (Federal Statistical Office)

• Marcus Ebeling (MPIDR), Anna C. Meyer and Karin Modig (both Karolinska University):
  Are we all similar before death? Socio-demographic inequalities in pathways to death in Sweden

• Julie Tréguier (DIW Berlin), Carole Bonnet (INED), Didier Blanchet (INSEE):
  Measuring widowhood duration: theoretical developments & empirical evidence for France

• Jesus-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa (NIDI, University of Groningen), Ugofilippo Basellini (INED), Pekka Martikainen (University of Helsinki, MPIDR, Stockholm University), Emilio Zagheni (MPIDR), Fanny Janssen (NIDI, University of Groningen):
  Contribution of past trends in socio-economic inequalities in longevity to overall trends in life expectancy

Session 6 “Mortality trends and differentials in Germany” | 11:00 – 12:30 | Chair: Eva Kibele (State Office for Statistics Bremen)

• Maxi Stella Kniffka (MPIDR), Roland Rau (MPIDR, University of Rostock), Jonas Schöley, Mine Kühn and Natalie Nitsche (MPIDR):
  Increasing stillbirth rates in Germany: the influence of changes in population structure

• Andrea Buschner (Bavarian State Office for Statistics):
  Possibilities and limitations in the analysis of cause-of-death-specific mortality on the basis of multi-causal data: Covid-19 mortality in Bavaria 2020-2021

• Fabian Tetzlaff, Jens Hoebel, Niels Michalski and Enno Nowossadeck (all RKI):
  Area-based socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Germany: an ecological study based on cause of death statistics 2003 to 2019

• Marcus Ebeling (MPIDR), Michael Mühlichen and Sebastian Klüsener (both BiB):
  The contribution of mortality after a myocardial infarction to rural-urban mortality differences in Germany

Concluding remarks | 12:30 | by Pavel Grigoriev and Sebastian Klüsener (both BiB)

For the full conference programme and more information regarding the anniversary, please click the link below.