3mobilities: Trends in Commuting Mobility, Internal Migration and International Migration
Content and Objectives
Spatial mobility is a central demographic component with effects on the individual (e.g. income) and on society (e.g. functioning of education systems and national and international labour markets). Against this background, the question arises as to whether and how spatial mobility in modern societies changes over time.
On the one hand, an increase in mobility is often assumed, for example due to changing labour markets (e.g. increase in fixed-term employment contracts). On the other hand, the ageing of society or digitalisation are developments that are often associated with a constant or decreasing mobility of society as a whole. The aim of the project is therefore to analyse how internal migration, international migration and commuter mobility have developed in Germany in recent decades. To this end, weighted mobility rates (intensities) for the various mobility indicators, differentiated according to socio-demographic and regional characteristics, will be calculated for the first time for a period of almost 40 years. Secondly, the causes of these trends and the specific interactions between the forms of mobility (for example, these could act as substitutes) are analysed.
In addition to the changing composition of the population according to socio-demographic characteristics such as age, gender and education, little is known about which other social developments (for example, the flexibilisation and internationalisation of the labour market, the increasing proportion of the population with a history of immigration or the digitalisation of the world of work) could be the cause of changes in spatial mobility behaviour. Against the background of these processes, the interrelationships between the different forms of mobility have also been insufficiently investigated. A frequently voiced but rarely empirically tested hypothesis in this context is that migration is increasingly being replaced by circular commuter mobility. The use of the microcensus as a database opens up unique opportunities for analysis with very large, representative data sets, long data series and the recording of the most important forms of spatial mobility as well as additional characteristics such as educational qualifications, which are not recorded in official migration statistics.
The project is being carried out in cooperation with Research Group 2.1 "International Migration". The project thus makes a special contribution to the unique selling points and mission of the research area.
Data and Methods
The central data basis is the microcensuses since 1985. The individual survey waves are subjected to a complex data harmonisation process based on the GESIS microcensus trend file in order to generate a harmonised time series. A database with macro indicators is created to analyse the causes of the development trends. Multiple regression analysis methods are used to analyse the data.
Duration
01/2024–12/2026
Team
Partners
- Dr. Thomas Skora, GESIS – Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften
Dr. Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, Radboud University, Niederlande