Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung

Crises, Uncertainties and Fertility

Inhalt und Ziele

The COVID-19 pandemic is a health crisis that was associated with economic and social upheavals. The core of this research project is the short-term changes in fertility in the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, as fertility fluctuations in Germany differ partly significantly from those in other countries.

The project is theoretically based on the work on uncertainties and demographic behaviour during and after crises or disasters. The research field of COVID-19 and uncertainties is currently being intensively researched internationally. This project focuses in particular on the joint analysis of objective factors of crises and subjective perceptions of stress and uncertainty, which are investigated as causes of fertility fluctuations. A particular innovation of the project lies in investigating the influence of the subjective perception of health crises on the desire to have children and fertility behaviour over the life course. One example at the micro level is the influence of pregnancy loss (i.E. miscarriage) as a crisis event in the life course on short- and long-term fertility intentions at the individual level. Another is the impact of flight on family formation processes, for example in the projects "TransFAR (2.1.1)" and "Refugees from Ukraine in Germany (I.a)" in cooperation with project 1.2.1 "Fertility in the context of migration and integration" and research area 2 "Migration and mobility". One example at macro level is the impact of external crises such as COVID-19, in particular the institutional context (e.g. short-time working, vaccination recommendations, clinical care restrictions), on monthly abortion and fertility rates. As there are currently several crises such as the pandemic, climate change, inflation and wars, their research and effects on fertility are of great relevance; the possibility of political measures for intervention is given or is itself a subject of the study.

Daten und Methoden

The analyses are based on data from official statistics and register data. Secondary analyses with large panel studies such as the family demographic panel FREDA, its predecessor Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (PAIRFAM) and its international counterpart Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) are also used.

Laufzeit

1/2021–12/2024

Projektpartner

  • Prof. Dr. Michaela Kreyenfeld, Hertie School Berlin
  • Olga Pötzsch, Statistisches Bundesamt
  • Prof. Dr. Gunnar Andersson, Stockholm University

Ausgewählte Publikationen

Bujard, Martin; Andersson, Gunnar (2024):

European Journal of Population 40(4).

Beringer, Samira (2024):

Gynäkologische Endokrinologie.

Panova, Ralina; Buber-Ennser, Isabella; Bujard, Martin (2023):

Journal of Family Research 35: 168–180.

Bujard, Martin; Andersson, Gunnar (2022):

BiB Working Paper 6/2022. Wiesbaden: Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung.

Weitere Publikationen

Bujard, Martin; Kreyenfeld, Michaela (2023):

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Bujard, Martin (2022):

Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung (Hrsg.): Informationen zur politischen Bildung 350. Bonn.

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