Content and Objectives

Demographic developments in Germany are leading to major changes in the population structure not only at a national level, but also at a regional level. At a small-scale level (e.g. spatial planning regions and districts), a very differentiated picture emerges in terms of population development and age structure. These demographic conditions are both a consequence and a cause of socio-economic disparities in Germany. They are also very relevant politically due to the goal of equal living conditions enshrined in the Basic Law.
Various sub-projects are focussing on population dynamics and spatial disparities in order to close important gaps in research and data. A sub-project carried out in cooperation with the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development and the High Performance Computing Centre Stuttgart (HLRS) aims to gain a better understanding of small-scale population dynamics. The influence of the spatial structure used on the analysis of regional population trends is also being investigated (Modifiable Areal Unit Problem). One of the main objectives is to improve the assumptions for regional population projections. In addition to the regional population forecasts, which the BBSR calculates for spatial planning and other purposes as an extrapolation of current trends, alternative population forecasts are carried out at district level using selected scenarios in order to estimate and categorise the range of potential population developments. These project results on the uncertainty of population projections provide important new insights for planning and policy. In addition, the possibility and added value of switching from the classic cohort-component forecasting model currently used to a dynamic microsimulation model will be investigated.

A sub-project carried out in cooperation with Research Group 3.2 "Mortality" analyses regional differences and trends in healthy life expectancy. The question of the state of health in which the years of life gained due to increasing life expectancy are spent is highly relevant to public health. In view of the importance of equal living conditions, it is remarkable that there are hardly any subnational analyses of the development of healthy life expectancy in Germany. The studies show that regional differences in life expectancy are generally also reflected in healthy life expectancy, but that there are different trends by region, gender and age group.

A third sub-project is dedicated to the scientific monitoring of the regional population forecasts developed in sub-project 1 and their utilisation for different policy areas and spatial planning. The focus here is on the question of how forecast uncertainties can be methodically taken into account and what consequences these uncertainties have for utilisation.

Findings from the sub-projects have direct relevance for numerous policy fields, including spatial planning and regional development. This sub-project also looks at European and international best practices for overcoming the challenges posed by spatial socio-economic disparities.