Content and Objectives

This project involves analysing global population trends as well as comparative studies of individual countries. Many global demographic developments inevitably have an impact on Germany: for example, the populations in many traditional immigration countries are ageing, meaning that less immigration from Eastern Europe can be expected in the future. At the same time, there are still countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, whose populations will continue to grow in the foreseeable future despite falling birth rates and whose age structures will shift from very young populations to an increasing proportion of working age. In Asia in particular, however, there are also more and more countries whose populations are ageing rapidly, which means that they are facing similar challenges to Germany.

The concept of the (first) demographic dividend emerges in connection with development potentials that can arise when the proportion of the working-age population increases as a result of falling birth rates. Against this background, the use of the concept of the demographic dividend is critically discussed in a sub-project, whereby patterns and influencing factors of the underlying changes in the age structure are identified and the evidence base regarding the postulated economic growth effects of changes in the age structure is examined. This involves a detailed global analysis of countries whose birth rates have fallen in the course of the first demographic transition since 1950 and which have experienced significant changes in their age structure as a result. The results of this research show that this development is anything but uniform: it is doubtful to what extent the developments and experiences of some selected countries in Asia (especially the so-called tiger economies with rapidly falling birth rates and high economic growth rates) can be transferred to other countries and regions of the world where the proportion of the working-age population continues to increase or is yet to rise significantly.

Whether this change in the age structure actually contributes to increased economic growth depends on a number of factors, among which the human capital of the population stands out in particular. Formal education is only one aspect of human capital. For example, individual skills generally have a higher explanatory power for individual labour performance and aggregate economic growth than formal educational qualifications. Increasing female labour force participation can also generate an additional growth impulse. For this reason, a sub-project for the African continent takes an in-depth look at the qualification level of the population of selected countries in relation to their formal education. This is followed by an examination of the factors influencing the development of the qualifications of the African population in childhood and adolescence. The insights gained here, which, where appropriate, also take into account the influence of the corona pandemic, are directly relevant for the formulation of objectives in international development cooperation and possible measures by both the German government and other actors (e.g. Gesellschaft für internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH, United Nations).

Another sub-project on Asia looks at the extent to which immigration has influenced the ageing of the population to date and how future immigration could potentially affect the ageing process. In addition to traditional ageing measures, newer concepts such as "prospective age" are also used. These are not based on chronological age, but on remaining life expectancy and therefore allow an alternative view of ageing in the context of increasing life expectancy. These are not based on chronological age, but on remaining life expectancy and therefore allow an alternative view of ageing in the context of increasing life expectancy.