Content and Objectives

The project presents potential future demographic developments of the old-age dependency ratio and population size up to the year 2060. The empirical basis is given by projections and model calculations provided by the German Federal Statistical Office. As projections depend on the assumptions made about fertility, net migration and life expectancy, these are discussed against the background of historical developments and their leverage effects are shown in the course of time. The purpose is to determine which future developments are relatively probable and which are still open – for example, whether Germany will shrink within the next 50 years.

The long-term consequences of a long-lasting low fertility rate – as has been the case in Germany since 1975 – are interpreted in very different ways in literature and the press, ranging from harmless to horror scenarios. This is also caused by the diversity of the consequences, so that the analysis here is based on a broad interdisciplinary literature study. The focus is on the consequences of ageing on social insurance, economy, society and the party system, as well as the consequences of a possible shrinkage on foreign policy, Germany's role in the European Union, economy, society and the environment.