WP3: Delphi Study

Workpackage Leader

Rossella Palomba
Istituto di Ricerche sullo Popolazione e le Politiche Sociali
Rome, Italy

Objectives

The method known as a policy-oriented Delphi approach or ‘policy Delphi’ aims “to ensure that all possible options have been put on the table for consideration; to estimate the impact and consequences of any particular option; to examine and estimate the acceptability of any particular option”. In order to reach the goal a panel of national experts/social actors will be set up in each participating country and interviewed following a specific research methodology described below.

In the DIALOG project ex-ante evaluations of the expected effects of future policies in the field of population ageing and family building process will be analysed. In addition, the Delphi study will include ex-post evaluations of policy measures that have been implemented in the recent past. This double approach does not affect the essence of the aforementioned Delphi method and enhances the reliability of the views expressed by the experts.

Description of Work

The work will consist of 9 activities:

1. Setting up of national teams;
2. Preparation of the questionnaire to be used in the National Delphi surveys and identification of categories of potential experts/social and policy actors, setting guidelines for the background information package;
3. Meetings with national representatives, adaptation of the questionnaire to country specific issues, control on the list of potential experts/social and policy actors to be included in the national panel;
4. Selection of the European experts social and policy actors for the European Delphi study;
5. Preparation of the questionnaire to be used in the European Delphi study, identification of categories of potential experts/social and policy actors;
6. Field work at national and European level;
7. Preparation of guidelines for summary national reports by the project team;
8. Preparation of the summary national reports in English by national teams;
9. Preparation of the Final comparative report on the results of the national and European Delphi study.

Methodology

Two Delphi studies will be conducted:

a) National Delphi Study

A panel of experts will be set up at national level by the country team. The panel members will be recruited from fields comprising social partners, government, local authorities, professional and voluntary organisations etc.. Participants will be selected on the basis of their institutional background and expertise, being actors in highly diverse positions in the policy areas of interest for DIALOG. The policy areas, which should be clearly a priori identified and listed by the work package leader, should be both government policy measures and local policy measures which may be synergetic with national ones.

The national panel of experts will pass through the same stages as they would have done in an evaluation of future policies. The evaluations will be mainly in terms of the probability of achieving specified goals by means of targeted population policies.

The Delphi survey is designed as a face-to-face interview based on a structured questionnaire, though other possibilities (mail survey, telephone survey) depending on country specificity should be allowed. A meeting with the national team responsible for the Delphi study and the work package will take place before starting the survey to discuss in detail the questionnaire and adapt it to national priorities and specificity.

At the start of the interview all the panel members will be provided with the same package of background information which will consist of factual data on ongoing population trends. The package should be prepared at national level following the instructions of the project leader.

The main issues to be addressed in the Delphi study will be the following:

• Evaluation of the impact of a number of public policy measures concerning family building process such as leave arrangements (maternity leave, paternity or parental leave), child care arrangements, flexible working arrangements for parents, indicating specifically on which arguments they base their estimates;
• Evaluation of the impact of recent changes in the field of work and retirement policies (where appropriate), indicating specifically on which arguments they base their estimates;
• Evaluation of social policies from a gender perspective;
• Evaluation of pros and cons of new policy measures as indicated by findings from attitudinal national surveys or PPAS surveys, where appropriate.

A summary report in English based on the Delphi national study will be prepared by the national team following an outline prepared by the project leader.

b) European Delphi Study

The Delphi survey will also be carried out on respondents drawn from the list of representatives at the European level. The main goal is that of exploring and analysing expert opinions on population policy development in the field of ageing, family building process and gender equal opportunities from a European perspective. Experts/policy actors will be presented with a set of policy statements regarding population development and will be asked to indicate their degree of agreement or disagreement. They will also be asked to comment on the findings from general population surveys, to make predictions regarding future policies and identifying innovative solutions to selected problems.