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Fertility trends in OECD countries • 27.06.2024Just fertility postponement or permanent fertility decline?
Most OECD countries have been experiencing declining or stagnating fertility rates for decades, including Germany. At the OECD webinar on 20 June 2024, research experts discussed the causes of this development on the basis of the newly published OECD report “Society at a Glance: A spotlight on fertility trends”. BiB Director Prof. Dr. C. Katharina Spieß and BiB Research Director Prof. Dr. Martin Bujard were also present.
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The birth rate in OECD countries has fallen from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to just 1.5 children in 2022. In addition, women today are significantly older at the average age of 29 when they have their first child, emphasised Dr. Monika Queisser, Head of the OECD Social Policy Department.
Economic situation is important for starting a family
What are the reasons for the conspicuous decline in births? In addition to high housing costs and poor labour market conditions, insecurity plays a decisive role. Education economist Prof. Dr. Matthias Doepke (London School of Economics and Political Science) made it clear that the economic situation is important for the decision to start a family. According to Prof. Doepke, studies also show that more children are born where childcare is better developed. Dr. Silke Borgstedt from the SINUS Institute investigated the factors that prevent young people from starting a family. “The desire for a family among 20 to 39-year-olds is influenced by concerns about an affordable life in the future, such as high rents,” says Dr. Borgstedt. Perceived inequality of opportunity and social inequality are further aggravating factors.
Good family policy works
The fact that family policy also has an influence on fertility was confirmed by Prof. Dr. C. Katharina Spieß with regard to Germany. “The expansion of childcare for children under the age of three has played a major role in the increased birth rate in Germany since around 2010. The expansion of all-day childcare for primary school children is also likely to be important,” emphasised the BiB Director. The theory that the influence of family policy is not so great because birth rates are also low in Scandinavia is obvious per se, but: “It may also be that family policy no longer fits in with parents' ideas - parents today place a great deal of value on good early education in daycare,” said Prof. Dr. Spieß. As a result, the demands on family policy have changed: “Family policy is often a reaction to changes in parents' attitudes. However, it is also the case that family policy, such as the expansion of daycare centres, in turn changes parental attitudes. This is why there are still not enough daycare places at the moment, even though supply now exceeds demand in the past,” she said.
Multiple global crises as one cause
“Since the 1970s, Germany has been one of the bottom performers in terms of birth rates and has been in the middle of the European field since the increase in the 2010s,” explained Prof. Dr. Martin Bujard. According to BiB calculations, there was a slump in the birth rate in 2022 and 2023. In 2023, it was 1.36 children in Germany,” said the BiB researcher. Similar declines can be seen in all European countries. He sees one of the main reasons for this in the great uncertainty caused by a variety of global crises. Added to this is the increased expectation among many young adults that all conditions must first be right. Ultimately, the decision to have children also requires courage. Rampant uncertainty is therefore an important driver of the decline in birth rates, which the panellists agree will continue for the time being.