Anniversary Interview • 03.07.202350 years – a review: The BiB yesterday, today and tomorrow

Source: © Peter-Paul Weiler

Prof Dr Spieß, the BiB is celebrating its 50th anniversary in turbulent times. First the pandemic, then the Russian war against Ukraine. To what extent have these events also influenced the institute‘s research agenda?

Definitely. The BiB reacted very quickly to these two crises, both in its research and its policy advice. New research projects have emerged as a direct result of the crises. These include, for example, the topic “Strains of the Covid-19 pandemic on families, parents and children” or, very recently, the situation of refugees from Ukraine in Germany. Both are also examples of cross-disciplinary projects. The research areas at the BiB are highly interconnected, even though they each have their focus on different topics. The BiB has always focused on current challenges for the population and its development. This is also because research-based policy advice is a central task of the BiB.

Where do you see the strengths of the institute?

One strength is the diversity of scientific disciplines here at the BiB. Researchers from the fields of economics, sociology, political science, geography, demography, and medicine work together. These different perspectives are important when it comes to providing answers to the questions of our time – these are so complex that they cannot be answered from just one point of view. For example, shortly after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, it was possible to launch a project that calculated the bed occupancy of intensive care units during the pandemic on the basis of complex models, a project for which the BiB collaborates with other partners. Our project on refugees from Ukraine has also benefited from our scientific diversity and our external project partners. These studies also contribute to the visibility of the BiB’s research, as the last few months have shown. For example, our presence in the German media has increased considerably. This is a central aspect, especially for government research institutions like the BiB, which have the explicit task of providing research-based advice to politics and society.

The BiB has the task of researching, advising, and informing. This is a feature that distinguishes it from other demographic research institutions in Germany. How do you perceive these different tasks in your work?

Initially, the BiB was founded in 1973 because politicians saw a need for advice on population science issues, alongside declining birth rates since the mid-1960s. Broader education, the introduction of the birth control pill, and more rights for women on the labour market have greatly changed family life but also irritated many – people wanted to better understand these changes. This was always associated with informing the public about demographic research and trends. Furthermore, the institute advises policymakers based on its own empirical research and analyses. None of us writes exclusively scientific publications without also keeping knowledge transfer in mind. And none of us provides policy advice detached from research.

You already dealt intensively with the topic of early childhood education and care in families and day care centres before coming to the BiB. Where do you see the connections between this topic and population science research at the BiB?

The topic of early education and care has indeed occupied me as a population, education, and family economist for a very long time. But it remains very timely – especially regarding the use and development of today‘s and tomorrow‘s human potential. Investments in good early education and care are very effective and efficient – they can contribute significantly to more equal opportunities and enable all children to be supported from the very beginning. Early education and care lay the foundation for success at school and later at work, personal development, and much more. But they also make it possible for parents, especially mothers, to realise their employment aspirations. This is one way to counteract the demographically induced decline in labour force potential, which is already noticeable today.

Furthermore, we know that good education and care in day care centres have a positive effect on fertility and thus on birth rates, i. e., the desire to have children is more likely to be realised. But day care centres have a further benefit: they can contribute to improving the integration of migrant families, not only the children, but also the mothers – I have conducted empirical studies on this myself. Early education can therefore contribute significantly to ensuring that the base of the population pyramid in Germany does not shake. If we invest more in early education and care today, not only in families and day care centres, but also in good all-day programmes for primary school children, then we are also investing in our skilled workers of today, when we think of parents who are working and willing to work – as well as our skilled workers of tomorrow, when we think of the children.

Which topics will determine the demographic debate in the coming years?

In direct relation with the mentioned decline in the labour force potential, the focus will increasingly be on the question of how this can be countered and how effective the various measures might be. This covers not only economic performance, but also people‘s quality of life. People‘s well-being is important for all demographic events; the decision to have children, for migration and mobility decisions, as well as for how many years people can spend in good health. However, well-being is also a measure of how satisfied people are with their family situation, their work, their move, or their life as an older person. At the BiB, we also deal with this issue, which is key for the future. For example, we examine these issues through our large research project “FReDA – The German Family Demography Panel Study”, which provides us with a lot of important information on these topics every six months.

Central issues also include how we deal with the increasing heterogeneity of our society: Already today, almost every second child in Germany younger than ten has a migration background. And we will have to deal with the fact that the proportion of people in need of care will increase. Here, beyond caring for children, the question will increasingly arise as to who will take over these caregiving activities. So far, women have taken on most of these tasks, but they are increasingly employed. So how will it be possible to reconcile gainful employment and care in the future? Population research will also increasingly focus on the question of how we can age “well.” Questions of prevention, for example, are important here. The fact that we, as a wealthy country with a high level of education, are among the bottom performers in Western Europe in terms of life expectancy is a cause for concern. We deal with all these questions at the BiB and this is what makes our work so interesting.

Where do you see the institute in 10 years?

When I took over the directorship of the BiB in 2021, I named two important focal points for the further development of the institute: On the one hand, the further deepening of cooperation between the research areas within the BiB and, on the other hand, increasing the national and international visibility of the BiB. We are currently on a very good path here; for example, we have developed a BiB Fellow Programme, which connects us with renowned researchers in Germany and abroad, with whom we conduct joint events and projects.

For the future, I hope that the BiB will become a first port of call nationally and internationally for research on socio-politically relevant topics of our population in Germany while taking into account that its development is closely linked to global population dynamics. I am convinced that we can succeed in this. We at the BiB, meaning the entire staff, are well aware that it is a privilege to contribute to the key research questions of our time, and that this also entails a great responsibility for excellent research.

Editor's note: This is an abridged version of an interview that appeared in the 3/2023 issue of the journal Bevölkerungsforschung Aktuell.