Demographic trends in sub-Saharan Africa • 12.06.2023"Ageing an important future trend even in the youngest region of the world"

Ms Loichinger, how is the population developing in sub-Saharan Africa?

Let's first take a look at the world. There are currently just over 8 billion people on earth; this mark was broken last year. However, the world's population is now growing at less than one percent per year and growth will continue to decline. According to projections by the Population Division of the United Nations (UN) in New York, the world's population will continue to grow until the mid-2080s, before peaking at a good 10 billion people. Sub-Saharan Africa, along with some Asian countries, is the region where this population growth will be concentrated. 49 of 54 African countries belong to this region of the world, which is currently home to almost 1.2 billion people.

Sub-Saharan Africa is by far the youngest region in the world. A good 60 percent of the population there is under 25 years old. By comparison: in Germany, only just under a quarter of the population is under 25. The African region will remain young for the foreseeable future: even for the year 2050, the United Nations predicts that more than every second person in sub-Saharan Africa will still fall into this age group. What are the reasons for this? Birth rates are falling in many countries, but they are still comparatively high - with large differences between individual countries. In Niger and the Democratic Republic of Congo, women still have more than six children on average, in South Africa and Botswana it is less than three. In addition, life expectancy is still low by global standards, even though it is rising.

Together with other scientific partners, you organised a workshop in Uganda that looked at ageing in sub-Saharan Africa. Will ageing become an important demographic trend in this region as well?

Yes, definitely, ageing will also become an important future trend in the youngest region of the world. Although the population in sub-Saharan Africa is relatively young as described, the older population is continuously increasing due to the rising life expectancy in this world region as well. The proportion of people over 60 is low in a global comparison at just under five percent and, according to United Nations projections, will still be below Europe's current level by 2100. However, this hides a large number of elderly people in absolute terms: while there are 57 million today, this figure is expected to rise to 156 million by 2050 and 644 million by 2100.

How should society and politics in this region of the world deal with this ageing? Science can provide part of the answer here. In order to strengthen the professional exchange of young researchers on the topic of ageing in sub-Saharan African countries, the BiB organised a workshop in cooperation with the University of Groningen, the Max Planck Institute for demographic Research (MPIDR) and Makerere University in Entebbe (Uganda). The focus was on health trends and health care, intergenerational relationships and the general living conditions of older people. In particular, the question of how decision-makers can be sensitised to the concerns of older people was addressed. Therefore, in addition to expert lectures, there were also panel discussions with political decision-makers and representatives of civil society. The event was funded by the Volkswagen Foundation within the framework of the funding initiative "Knowledge for Tomorrow - Cooperative Research Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa".
The topic will also receive further scientific focus. A special issue on the overall theme of the workshop will be published in the International Journal of Public Health. Contributions dealing with health and ageing in sub-Saharan African countries can still be submitted until 31 August.

There is also research on population trends in sub-Saharan Africa at the BiB. What topics are you specifically dealing with here?

There is the concept of the demographic dividend that interests us. This term describes the potential for economic growth that can arise as a result of falling birth rates and, in turn, rising shares of the working-age population. These demographic trends can be observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Whether or to what extent the economy grows depends on a number of other factors. One of these, the human capital of the population, has proven to be particularly relevant. Therefore, we look at trends in formal education, skills and female labour force participation in sub-Saharan Africa.

For example, for 13 selected countries and comparing different birth cohorts, we have been able to show that longer periods of formal education have led to a significant increase in female labour force participation. We also found that increasing education is increasingly associated with jobs outside the primary sector. The impact of the Corona pandemic on fertility in selected sub-Saharan African countries is the subject of a recently published study. Our findings contribute to classifying the perspective for growth impulses and are relevant, among other things, for the formulation of development policy goals and measures.

The questions were asked by the BiB's internet editorial team.