IUSSP: International Population Conference 2021 | 17.12.2021Mortality Research at BiB in Focus

Model for Intensive Care Bed Utilization

The topic of mortality and health influences BiB research projects, especially in times of pandemics. Its influence was shown by the project group around Sebastian Klüsener, which developed a microsimulation model, with which prognoses for the utilization of intensive care beds by individuals sick with COVID-19 are generated.

The model accounts for spatiotemporal differences in pandemic dynamics and risk groups, as well as potential spatial pathways of pandemic spread. "The model can be used to identify at an early stage whether intensive care bed occupancy shortages are likely in the coming weeks based on current pandemic dynamics. This information can play an important role, for example, in political decisions about containment measures," Sebastian Klüsener emphasised.

Regional Mortality Differences in German-Speaking Countries

Michael Mühlichen (BiB), together with Markus Sauerberg (Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria) and Mathias Lerch (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, Switzerland), looked at regional differences in preventable causes of death in Austria, Germany and Switzerland between 1995-2018. The three countries are all German-speaking, or in the case of Switzerland, majority German-speaking, but differ in their health policy orientations.

"The goal of the project is to examine trends and differences in mortality that is medically and preventatively avoidable to gain insights into the effect of different health policies on spatial mortality differences in the three countries," said BiB researcher Michael Mühlichen.

Among other things, the findings show that the lower levels of life expectancy in the north and east of the German-speaking region studied are also related to deficits in medical care and in promoting healthier behaviour among the population.

Spatial Inequalities in Mortality

Spatial inequalities in mortality in France and Germany over the past 30 years are the focus of a group of researchers that involves Pavel Grigoriev, Michael Mühlichen and Sebastian Klüsener from BiB, and Florian Bonnet and France Meslé from the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED).

"Our datasets on regional mortality allow us to trace the continuous trend of spatial inequalities in mortality in both countries," said BiB researcher Grigoriev. He remarks that the fact that regional inequalities in both countries have not continued to decline in recent years, even though overall life expectancy has increased in both countries, is a cause for concern.

Smoking Factor Increases Regional Mortality Differences in Germany

The question of how smoking contributes to regional mortality differences in Germany was explored by Pavel Grigoriev, Sebastian Klüsener and Alyson van Raalte (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock) in their presentation.

"Our findings show that smoking-related mortality decreased among men and increased among women during the period of study," Pavel Grigoriev emphasised. "How strong the impact of smoking on mortality is seen by, among other things, the fact that the regional differences in total mortality among women would be only half as large in many places if we excluded deaths attributable to smoking," he said.

Those Who Earn Well Live Longer

Georg Wenau (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock) Pavel Grigoriev, Sebastian Klüsener, Roland Rau and Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (both Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock) looked at the relationship between income and mortality, taking into account spatial differences in Germany.

"Mortality risk decreases almost linearly with increasing income, and this is true across all regions and settlement types," Sebastian Klüsener emphasised. However, the extent of these mortality differences between income groups varies enormously within Germany. Large cities, for example, show the highest degree of social inequality in mortality.

Making Mortality Data Comparable

Ensuring international comparability of data on causes of death over space and time is a scientific challenge. This includes, among other things, harmonising the transition of different disease classifications and reallocating ill-defined causes of death. This challenge becomes even greater when one goes to the sub-national level.

To contribute to a solution of the problem, Pavel Grigoriev, Florian Bonnet (French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED)), Michael Mühlichen, and France Meslé (French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED)) presented two different approaches to redistribute ill-defined causes of death that allow for adequate comparability.

Other Topics by BiB Researchers

Elke Loichinger and Andreas Backhaus presented a study in which they systematically examined the evidence of the concept of the "demographic dividend" from a global perspective. They also presented the results of a cohort analysis of female labour force participation in sub-Saharan Africa. They emphasised that broader access to education for women must initially reduce labour force participation, but has a positive impact later in working life.

Internal Migration Patterns in East Germany

Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, Nico Stawarz, Uta Brehm and Nikola Sander looked at how the migration of women from rural regions affects gender proportions in East Germany.

They showed a change in internal migration among young women and men over time since the early 2000s, with East German cities now attractive destinations for 18- to 24-year-olds from rural regions in East Germany.

Social Support and Life Satisfaction of Older People

Existing social support positively influences the life satisfaction of older people in Germany, Frank Micheel emphasised in his presentation. This is particularly true for those with a low income and poor health. They show a significantly stronger effect on life satisfaction compared to the group of those who are better off economically and in terms of health.