New BiB Brochure • 09.07.2021World Population Continues to Grow, But More Slowly

Source: © alphaspirit/stock.adobe.com

The brochure examines developments between regions or groups of countries according to their level of development and at the global level. They are supplemented by selected country examples. Population development in Germany is repeatedly placed in relation to global events. The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic on demographic development are also discussed, insofar as the effects of COVID-19 on central factors of global population dynamics can already be foreseen today.

Population dynamics, i.e. the change in population numbers, age structure and their spatial distribution, essentially depends on the development of the demographic components of birth rate, mortality and international migration. Therefore, these factors are the main focus of this brochure.

Global Decline in the Birth Rate

The analyses show that the average number of children per woman (total fertility rate) has declined both globally and in all geographical regions of the world in recent decades.

Whereas 50 years ago it was still just under five children per woman worldwide, by 2015/20 it had halved to 2.5 children per woman. However, there are large differences in the average number of children both within countries and between social groups. For example, the countries that presently have the lowest average number of children born per woman are mainly in Asia and Europe: South Korea (1.1), Taiwan (1.2) and Macau (1.2) are the three countries in East Asia with the lowest average number of children worldwide. The countries with the highest fertility levels in the world today are almost exclusively in sub-Saharan Africa. These include Niger (7.0), Somalia (6.0), the Democratic Republic of Congo (6.0), Mali (5.9), Chad (5.8), Angola (5.6), Burundi (5.5) and Nigeria (5.4). The highest birth rates in countries outside Africa are in Afghanistan with 4.6, Solomon Islands with 4.3 and East Timor with 4.1 children per woman.

Trend towards Higher Life Expectancy Continues

As the brochure shows, while the number of children is declining globally, life expectancy in the world continues to rise. More and more countries will have to deal with ageing populations in the future. Even though there are still large differences between the world regions and countries with different levels of development, the trend towards a longer life continues globally.

This positive increase in life expectancy is accompanied by a continued change in the causes of death. For example, within ten years deaths from non-infectious diseases worldwide have increased from 33.5 million in 2007 to 41.1 million in 2017. This development is also a result of the increasing ageing of the population. According to United Nations projections, this will have reached a point by 2050 where one in six people in the world will be 65 or older.

Increase in International Mobility

Migration plays an increasing role in regional population development. International migration often occurs from regions with high population growth to those where population growth is low or where deaths already exceed births and the population would shrink without immigration. In such countries, immigration sometimes contributes significantly to population dynamics, while the demographic consequences of emigration in the countries of origin remain low. Overall, the number of people living outside their country of birth or citizenship or seeking protection in another country has increased continuously in recent years.

However, at around 1 per cent the proportion of mobile people in the world population has remained largely the same since the 1990s, while the regions of origin and destination of international migration have changed. While Europe and North America have consistently been among the most important destinations from a global perspective, Asia has developed into a significant region of origin and destination in recent decades. Asia has become an important hub of global migration movements, which is related to economic development and educational expansion, among other factors. For example, more and more people from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are migrating for employment reasons to the Gulf States, where there is a shortage of local labour.

Population Growth and Sustainability

Even if population numbers will no longer grow at the usual rate in the coming decades, the findings of the brochure indicate that the sustainability of global consumption and production patterns will remain a future issue for people and the environment. Thus, the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations are important instruments to meet the increasing needs of a further growing world population without endangering the environment and future opportunities of future generations.