Interview on Demographic Trends • 04.05.2021“Pandemics Can Change Spatial Population Distribution”

BiB-Direktor Prof. Dr. Norbert F. Schneider Source: BiB

Professor Schneider, what effects do you expect the corona pandemic to have on demographic development in Germany?

In the long term, I am not expecting the pandemic to have any lasting impact on the demographic development in Germany in terms of population size. In the short term, however, there's been a roughly five per cent increase in mortality compared to the previous year and net migration has decreased by about a third, although I expect mortality to decrease slightly in the coming years and migration to rise again. So far, the pandemic seems to have had little impact on birth rates. It remains to be seen, though, whether the second wave will lead to a decline in births. What may develop differently in the long term is the spatial distribution of the population. The pandemic could increase suburbanisation and make rural regions more attractive for internal migration. The main reasons for this include the expansion of home office working, improved provision of digital terminals and better communication software.

To what extent has the BiB's research work contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic?

In the first few weeks of the pandemic, the BiB provided information for the Federal Government, the purpose of which was to present a differentiated picture of the situation at an early stage and to facilitate an accurate assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the population. Later on, the focus shifted to the impact of the pandemic on families and to participation in developing forecasting models for intensive care bed capacity levels. The BiB was one of the first research institutes in Germany to present empirical survey data on the social consequences. In the meantime, data have been collected in a number of BiB surveys. These will be presented over the coming months.

The newly published BiB demography report focuses primarily on the development of the population between 2010 and 2020. What were the main demographic trends during this period?

The least expected development was probably the substantial increase in population size, which was the exact opposite of the trend predicted at the time. Contrary to the expectations from ten years ago, there has also been an increase in internal east/west migration in favour of the eastern regions of Germany. No such increase in immigration had been expected.

A gloomy picture of the demographic future is often painted in Germany. Is this latent fear justified?

Germany continues to face enormous demographic challenges. With proper political management, however, these are manageable. In my opinion, there is currently no justification for painting risk or even doomsday scenarios on demographic grounds.

Can you give us an example?

The oft-cited shortage of skilled workers. It’s true that we will see a significant decrease in the number of people of working age. But there will be hardly any decline in the number of hours worked by those in employment in the coming years, as people are working longer, working more hours per capita and the proportion of working-age people has risen, especially as a result of the increased participation of women in the labour force.

Ageing of the population is an ongoing trend here in Germany. Are we becoming a pensioners’ republic?

Ageing is a major demographic trend. It can’t be stopped either by immigration or by an increase in the birth rate. Right now, half of the population is older than 45 and this median age is set to rise even further to about 48. The decisive trend in the next 15 years or so will be the retirement of the baby boomer generation – the large number of people born between 1955 and 1970. Nevertheless, the fact that these people are healthier, more active and more productive than previous generations represents a major source of hope. If we succeed in giving social space to the marked willingness of these people to make a contribution to society, we can overcome this demographic development, too.

There are more people living in Germany than ever before and yet there are numerous regions with a declining population. Do demographic developments need to be studied on a much smaller scale?

Demographic development has always been characterised by regional diversity. What population research understands better today than it did a few years ago is that it makes little sense to try to chart demographic development on the basis of highly aggregated indicators alone. For example, it is true to say that Germany’s population is ageing. At the level of the 401 administrative districts, however, we can see that a considerable number are currently developing in the opposite direction. Some districts are ageing moderately and yet others extremely rapidly. Demographics can often be decided by local factors and represent a challenge that can be influenced not only by federal and state, but above all by local policies.

Background

At the end of the 19th legislative term, the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community published its three-part – cross-sectional, scientific and digital – demographic résumé.

• The BMI report “Demographic Policy in Cross-Section” sets out the diverse national and international activities of the Federal Ministry of the Interior in the field of demography and looks at future challenges facing demographic policy.
• The “Facts on Demographic Development in Germany 2010-2020” report of the Federal Institute for Population Research describes Germany’s main demographic trends over the last ten years and thus provides a foundation for evidence-based policy-making with regard to demographic change.
• “Demografiepolitik4you” at www.demografiepolitik.de/4you/de contains an interactive presentation of the core elements of both reports.