New Article in “Demography” • 21.02.2019Historical Drop in Birth Rates in Sweden: Elites, Cities and Migrants as Forerunners

Dr. Sebastian Klüsener, Head of Research Area “Demographic Change and Ageing” Source: BiB

Why are you interested in this specific topic?

Klüsener: We still have a very limited understanding of how social change occurs and how it spreads socially and spatially in a society. This understanding would be very useful for better forecasting future transformation processes. The historical decline in birth rates in Europe as part of the so-called demographic transition is especially suitable for basic research on this issue for two reasons. First, the change can clearly be identified by declining birth rates. Further changes in attitudes, such as the role of women in society, are more difficult to determine. Second, historical populations are subject to less rigid data protection rules. Hence, for research purposes we had access to comprehensive individual data of all Swedish residents including profession and home address for the years 1880, 1890 and 1900.

What was most surprising about your findings?

Klüsener: Previous studies have already shown that elites and urban populations have frequently been forerunners of the decline in the birth rate. In our study, elites are persons in high professional positions. What was surprising was how strongly spatial patterns of the decline differed by social status. Declining birth rates of wives of farm workers and workers’ wives concentrated primarily in early spatial centres in this early period of the decline in the birth rate. These included, among others, the cities of Stockholm and Malmo and their surroundings.

The elites, on the other hand, experienced sharp declines in birth rates in all parts of Sweden with a spatial pattern that was more balanced. This corresponds with theories according to which it was much easier for the elites, at least in historic times, to communicate across spatial boundaries. Consequently, the members of this group played a key role in the spatial expansion of social transformation processes. In addition, we were able to identify persons as forerunners in the process who no longer lived in their places of birth. This was particularly true for immigrants from countries where the decline in birth rates had begun earlier than in Sweden. One of these countries, for example, is France.

To what extent can these findings be applied to the time we live in?

Klüsener: Today, global migration networks, large cities and elites still play an important role in the formation and spread of social transformation processes. Among the elites, this is partly due to the fact that they often hold key positions and can thus promote certain transformation processes, for example through legislative amendments and the market launch of technical innovations.

However, due to the internet the elites tend to lose their advantage in communication across spatial boundaries. For instance, a call to the other end of the world was associated with high expenses just a few decades ago, but nowadays it is usually no longer a question of money. In the past, the elites also had an advantage when it came to overcoming language barriers. If the dynamic development of translation software continues within the next years, even language barriers will no longer be an obstacle. In the past, the elites also had an advantage when it came to overcome language barriers. In this sense, one can expect that the members of the elite will play a less important role in the spatial spread of attitude changes. This will possibly also have an impact on political opinion-forming processes.

The interview was led by the internet editorial team of the BiB.

Study: Klüsener, Sebastian; Dribe, Martin; Scalone, Francesco (2019): Spatial and Social Distance at the Onset of the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1880–1900. Demography 56(1): 169–199.